Israel's fourth election in two years

On March 23, Israel will hold its fourth national election in two years. This is a result of political stalemate and politicking that's placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against most other parties, with his Likud party showing one of its lowest polling projections in the past three elections. It is not the first election since the pandemic, but the pandemic will play a more significant role than the previous election a year ago.

In addition to the pandemic, there are several other issues that make this election and the potential outcome unique. This analysis will explain some of the main issues so that after March 23, you'll understand better whether Israel will be able to form a stable government and move forward, or be doomed to an unprecedented fifth election later this year.

The Parties

There are some three-dozen parties running for the 24th Knesset, more parties than Baskin Robbins has flavors. Most will not receive the required 3.25 percent. Yet with Israelis suffering election fatigue, it's possible that there could be a surprise "protest vote" not (yet) represented in the polls that catapults a fringe party into prominence, and a place of influence. The main parties estimated to pass the threshold and enter Knesset, in general order of their current polling positions are:

Likud - the long-standing party founded by Menachem Begin that's been one of Israel's leading parties since the 1970s is right of center and represents much of the wide diversity of Israel's population. It is headed by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, the longest serving PM in Israeli history.

Yesh Atid - has been on the scene for most of the past two decades, considered to be center-left, is headed by former TV personality Yair Lapid who has served in past coalitions with Netanyahu as prime minister, but who now is one of the leaders of the "anyone but Bibi" camp.

New Hope - a new party established last year by former Likud member and previous minister Gidon Sa'ar who is considered to the right of Netanyahu. While Sa'ar was once close to Bibi, they have long been at odds, and Sa'ar has placed all his chips and future career on replacing Netanyahu.

Yamina - a right of center party that's gone through a variety of incarnations, breaking away from a wider national religious group, merging back, and running on its own. It is headed by former government minister Naftali Bennett who was also once close to Netanyahu and is now challenging him to be PM, and the head of the right of center nationalist camp.

Yisrael Beiteinu - a party headed by another former Netanyahu confidant and government minister Avigdor Liberman that combines right of center policies with liberal social and often anti-religious views. It typically attracts Russian immigrants.

Joint List - three Arab parties merged to form this faction to succeed collectively and not have any one of them slip below the threshold. In recent elections they have won enough votes to be the third largest party in the Knesset.

Shas - an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party made up by and representing mostly Sephardic Jews, whose families are from predominantly Arab countries of north Africa and the Middle East.

United Torah Judaism - an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party made up by and representing mostly Ashkenazi Jews, whose families are from predominantly eastern European countries and specific rabbinic dynasties decimated by the Holocaust and rebuilt in Israel.

Labor - from Israel's founding until the late 70s, Labor and its predecessors were the predominant political force in Israel. Since then, Labor not only has not won more than a handful of elections, but its representation in Knesset has waned, nearing extinction. It is left-wing socially and politically. Labor has been led by 10 different people in the past 20 years, a product or symptom of its waning influence.

Blue and White - was formed before the last election and is headed by former Chief of Staff and retired general Benny Gantz. They formed a unity government with Likud last spring, which quickly unraveled as the government fell apart. It is now polling just above the threshold.

Religious Zionists - is a right-wing nationalist-religious faction that's the merger of two parties. They are controversial in having a person on their list who is widely derided as racist and not qualified to serve, but seen as a potential key partner of a Likud-led government.

Meretz - a far left party that espouses controversial positions considered pro-Arab and anti-Israel by some, it is polling just below the threshold. Meretz could be a key element to having enough seats to form a government, but hard to imagine right of center Sa'ar and Bennett sitting in a government with them.

Ra'am - is an Arab Islamist party that, until this election, was part of the Joint List. It broke away over the Joint List sweeping rejection of any government plans, including the heralded Abraham Accords, and not representing the interest of Israel's Arab citizens. It is polling just below the threshold but if it passes, could become a key player in supporting the establishment and maybe being part of the next government.

Fall of Likud

Polls are changing daily but to give a sense of how far the Likud has dropped, have a look at the current parties and the number of seats they hold as compared to what current projections are (in parenthesis):

Likud - 36 (27-29) reflecting more than a 20 percent drop

Yesh Atid - 17 (20)

Joint List - 15 (8)

Blue and White - 14 (4)

Shas - 9 (6-8)

United Torah Judaism - 7 (7-8)

Yisrael Beiteinu - 7 (7-9)

Yamina - 5 (11-12)

Labor - 3 (5-6)

Meretz - 3 (4)

New Hope - (9-12)

Ra'am - (4)

Religious Zionists - (4-5)

If there are no drastic changes, Netanyahu and Likud will have no path to form a coalition. Even with Yamina, and the other parties that would reflexively join a government under him (in italics), they do not reach the 61 seats needed. Likud once led with as many as 48 seats in 1981, and sunk to as few as 19 and 12 seats respectively under Netanyahu's leadership. This significant drop could lead to Likud being out of power.

Mathematically, Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, and Blue and White could surpass 61 seats, even more if Meretz is added. However, the contortions needed to bridge interests and ideologies of some of the most right-wing and the most left-wing parties would be a herculean challenge, not to mention the egos and agreement who serves as prime minister.

The Arab Vote

Not included in the mathematics to form a coalition are the Arab parties. Historically, they have not supported the formation of a government for their own nationalistic reasons, and the major national parties have not wanted or needed to seek their support. This red line has been widened in recent years with the Arab Joint List in many ways serving as a fifth column, actively supporting Israel's adversaries in many conflicts. Most recently, they rejected the Abraham Accords' heralding of peace and diplomatic relations with four Arab states.

A growing number of Israeli Arabs feel that the Joint List is not representing their interests, reflected in the drop from being the third largest party. This is underscored by Ra'am, the Arab Islamist party, running on its own. It's not clear if they will pass the threshold, but if they do, Ra'am brings another dynamic to the table that will be unique: the possibility of supporting the formation of a coalition if not in fact being part of that in some way. Because Ra'am wants to be a player and not sit in (a hostile) opposition, it could easily throw its support behind either of the two camps' attempts to form a government, exacting a high "price" in the form of funding for the Arab community, government positions, and more. For that reason, even Netanyahu has been actively courting the Arab vote. It's not unusual for Arabs to vote for and be part of Israel's major national parties. However, Arabs remember the Prime Minister's previous election day cry that the Arabs are coming out in droves as a ploy to get more right-wing voters to come out, and to peel off as many votes for Likud from ideological competitors. This time, the Arab vote remains one of the biggest wild cards.

Challenge from the Right

It's rare in a democracy to have an incumbent facing the strongest challenge to reelection from the same side of the political spectrum. However, the main challenge to Netanyahu and Likud this election is from the right. Gidon Sa'ar and New Hope won't join or support a government led by Netanyahu. Naftali Bennet and Yamina are keeping options open, so people are calling him "kingmaker." But mathematically, if he can't help Netanyahu form a government because they don't have enough votes anyway, the likelihood of Sa'ar and Bennett joining forces to form a government increases.

In parallel, both Sa'ar and Bennett have said they will not sit in a government led by Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid, and Lapid has said it's more important to have Netanyahu out than him become Prime Minister. While these red lines could change, one lesson from the failure of the last government is that when Benny Gantz broke his promise not to sit in a government under Netanyahu, and got played doing so, he lost credibility. His party now holds 14 seats and may drop to four, or not even make it past the threshold. Nobody wants to make the same mistake.

Because he left Likud, its possible that Sa'ar can do something that nobody else can: peel off Likud Knesset members after the election to join and support a government under his leadership. Others in Likud are also unhappy with Netanyahu, but haven't had the nerve to split from Likud as Sa'ar did. Rather than sitting in the opposition, they could join and strengthen a Sa'ar led government, minimizing the need to rely on the left-wing parties. This could propel the leader of the party with the third or fourth largest number of votes to become prime minister.

Israel’s voting system

Israel has no early voting or absentee ballots. As most Israeli adults have been vaccinated, on election day, Israelis will line up to vote in person, in a socially distanced way, and place a paper ballot inside an envelope, and place that envelope inside a second. Shortly after the polls close there will be a good sense of the overall shape of the Knesset, but actual numbers won’t be sure until a day or two later when the ballots of soldiers voting on their bases are counted, and the final numbers and percentages are determined.