Did Netanyahu just lose?

(JTA) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to form a government by the deadline imposed by Israeli law, thrusting the country into uncertain political territory yet again.

This could mean that after more than 12 years as Israel’s prime minister, Netanyahu will have to leave office. But he’s been in this situation before and managed to survive. It all depends on what happens next: Another politician could replace him, or Israel could head to its fifth round of elections since 2019. Netanyahu has been trying desperately to avoid this very situation.

Back in March, Netanyahu’s Likud party won the most votes in the most recent Israeli election. In early April, Netanyahu was given another chance to form a government. He had 28 days to convince a majority of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, to support him.

Unfortunately for Netanyahu, the Knesset was split. Fewer than half the lawmakers supported him. About the same number opposed him, either because of ideology, his ongoing corruption trial or other longstanding grievances. A handful were undecided.

Netanyahu has spent the past four weeks trying to reconcile parties with opposing ideologies and turned to a series of potential compromises — like allowing one of his rivals to serve first as prime minister for a year.

But he wasn’t able to secure a majority. On Tuesday at midnight, Israel time, his 28 days expired.

So did Netanyahu lose? Not exactly. It all depends on who gets the next shot at forming a government.

Israel’s largely ceremonial president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide the next stage of the process. He has three choices: Give Netanyahu a 14-day extension; Give another party leader the chance to form a coalition; or hand the process over to the entire Knesset without designating a leader.

In April, Rivlin was reluctant to give Netanyahu any chance to form a government because of his trial and seems unlikely to give him the extension. If the president hands control to a Netanyahu rival, that person then must form a coalition. The most likely candidates are either Yair Lapid, a centrist, or Naftali Bennett, a right-wing politician who has long been a frenemy of Netanyahu.

Those opponents span the ideological spectrum, from left to right, and would need to forge a delicate balance in order to govern. But most Israeli politicians — let alone the voters — are exhausted by the never-ending cycle of elections. So the politicians may feel compelled to find some way to form a coalition.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu will remain prime minister of a caretaker government that is unable to advance major legislation or pass a budget.

Has this ever happened? Yes. In 2019, following Israel’s second round of elections, Netanyahu failed to form a government by the 28-day deadline and Rivlin gave control to Benny Gantz, a centrist leader. Rivlin even referred to Netanyahu as the “outgoing prime minister.” A series of essays appeared in publications heralding the end of the Netanyahu era.

But Gantz failed to form a government, so Israel held a third election. Results were similarly inconclusive, but by that time, the worsening COVID pandemic led Gantz and Netanyahu to form an uneasy unity government. Their coalition ended up being dysfunctional and collapsed within a year.

Now Netanyahu is trolling Naftali Bennett. Bennett once headed a party to Netanyahu’s right, but Netanyahu has since moved rightward to shore up his base. Now Netanyahu has taken to taunting Bennett on Twitter, claiming that if Bennett allies with centrists and the left, he’ll be a hypocrite.