Tehran's eyes on Washington, D.C.

Iranian eyes will be on Washington, D.C., while looking over their shoulder at home. The Iranians are looking over their shoulder because a series of attacks attributed to them and their puppets in the Middle East are targeting Israeli commercial ships and firing rockets at Israel from Gaza and Syria. This is coupled with Israel’s reported retaliation against Iranian military ships, and explosion deep underneath an Iranian nuclear facility, raising eyebrows as to Israel’s reach and Iranian vulnerability.

Iranians are eying Washington, D.C., as the Mossad director, Yossi Cohen, and Israeli National Security adviser, Meir Ben-Shabbat, will be there to meet their U.S. counterparts to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat. Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi was also meant to make the trip but canceled due to dozens of rockets being fired at Israel from Gaza over the weekend, the potential Syrian threat, and Israel’s preparedness and response.

Either way, sending these top-level security and intelligence officials together, to meet with their U.S. counterparts publicly, leaves no ambiguity: Israel is concerned about what seems to be a U.S. push to return to the flawed 2015 Iran deal. What are the issues and how might this play out vis a vis U.S.-Israeli relations and beyond?

The high-level delegation will express Israel’s opposition to returning to the 2015 agreement. There’s no doubt, Israel will make its case and try to assess U.S. goals, and to what degree the U.S. will be transparent (even if differing), unlike during the Iran deal’s negotiating during which Israel was largely left in the dark. Israel will surely share intelligence, some old that was shared with President Biden’s predecessors, and maybe new surprises.

The most well known of these was the 2018 Mossad operation demonstrating Israel’s prowess; carting off over half a ton of secret Iranian nuclear files from a warehouse in Tehran. It also proved Iranian intentions as being far from peaceful, then, or while negotiating the 2015 Iran deal.

Israel will also try to assess how much is it a U.S priority to return to the Iran deal at all costs, and how eager the Biden administration will appear to do so. The U.S.’s eagerness may allow Iran to exact broad concessions, if not payoffs as was done by the Obama administration. It may also mean that any new or revised deal won’t be any more secure than the previous one, giving Iran the ability to create nuclear weapons by 2030, just by following the deal. There’s real concern that the 2015 deal allows Iran to enrich uranium to 5 percent, but that now it’s doing so at 20 perecent, and publicly aiming for 60 percent. Albeit with some stringent sanctions currently in place, Iran does so with virtual impunity and that worries Israel.

Minimally, Israelis want any deal to be “longer and stronger.” Israelis are concerned that the Biden administration wants a deal at all costs, regardless of whether it is a god deal, much less one that will keep Israel safe. The Biden administration is getting the same message from many Arab states, but less publicly.

All this takes place in the shadow of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Vienna about reviving the 2015 deal. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki suggested that Israel’s input would be heard but that the U.S. will likely not be influenced, adding, “we have kept them (Israel) abreast as a key partner of these discussions — or of our intentions, and we will continue to do that on any future visits.” It’s concerning that even before such high level and private conversations begin, the Biden administration is signaling it won’t be moved. This concerns Israel directly, but also because the Iranians take away the message that they can run the table on the Americans, again.

In advance of the Israelis’ visit, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told Fox News that talks “have been constructive in the sense that there is real effort underway there with the permanent five members of the Security Council plus Germany on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand, to get on the table all of the issues related to both sanctions and nuclear issues so that we could end up back in the deal on a compliance-for-compliance basis … the United States is not going to lift sanctions unless we have clarity and confidence that Iran will fully return to compliance with its obligations under the deal.”

Despite this, officials in Jerusalem have expressed concern that Washington was not updating Israel transparently. There’s concern that the Biden administration is not sharing what it plans to offer Iran in the Vienna talks, or what “compliance-for-compliance” means. The Israeli leaders will do their best to discern this week what the U.S. intentions are, and whether the U.S. will be transparent.

It was reported that one anonymous Israeli official expressed hope that Israel’s voice will be heard. “We don’t think [a return to the Iran deal is] a done deal yet. We’re going [to Washington] because we’re going to try to influence the process.”

In addition to hearing Israeli concerns and receiving intelligence, U.S. officials will likely try do discern where Israel’s red lines are, what plans it has, and to prevent any surprises that might either derail U.S. negotiations, or escalate tension with Iran. It may seek to partner with Israel somewhat more directly, or toss a bone in Israel’s direction to prevent any further, and uncoordinated, Israeli action.

While many Israeli officials have spoken openly and bluntly about Israel’s position, it’s likely that Israel wants to avoid the tension that existed with the Obama administration. To that end, one of those most vocally expressing Israeli concerns is U.S. Ambassador, Gilad Erdan, who stated, “Israel is a sovereign and independent country, and we reserve for ourselves all the options to behave as we see fit. Israel isn’t in the same situation as the U.S.; it’s existential threat. Iran threatens to destroy Israel directly.”

All eyes are on Washington this week with good reason. Don’t blink, you might miss something very important.

U.S.-born and educated Jonathan Feldstein immigrated to Israel in 2004. Throughout his life and career, he has fellowshipped with Christian supporters of Israel and shares experiences of living as an Orthodox Jew in Israel. He writes a regular column for Standing With Israel at charismanews.com and other prominent web sites. He can be reached at firstpersonisrael@gmail.com.