US 'relentless diplomacy' about to face its most crucial challenges

In October, I wrote about the president’s announced shift from a foreign policy strategy of military intervention to a policy of “relentless diplomacy”; and the challenges he will face in dealing with Iran and with increased Palestinian intransigence toward any concessions in the conflict with Israel (“Everywhere,” Oct. 22, 2021)

I also opined in that column, that the president conveyed a subtle message of reluctance to back up his “relentless diplomacy” with hard power coming on the heels of the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Now the president is faced with two very complex and dangerous issues: Russia is poised to invade Ukraine and China is becoming increasingly belligerent and impatient about uniting Taiwan with the Chinese mainland.

The U.S. and the Western allies have clearly staked out diplomatic positions opposing Russia’s apparent imminent invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to overthrow it pro-West government; and to China’s brazen violation of Taiwanese defensive airspace along with its construction of air-bases on contested islands in the South China sea.

Western diplomacy has accomplished little to reverse respectively the invasion and occupation of Crimea in February 2014 by Putin, and the ongoing Chinese suppression of Hong Kong’s autonomy and democratic government.

The mainland government’s action is a breach of the China/UK agreement of 1997 which was supposed to create a period of 50 years of “one country, two systems” government in that city.

Why should we believe that relentless diplomacy will succeed in any of these other areas of contention without the backing of hard power and the will to use it if necessary?

I am not suggesting we keep our hand on the trigger in every instance, but history has shown that relentless diplomacy not backed by an unambiguous willingness to use our military strength has generally failed.

Complicating both these situations is the fact that both Russia and China may separately have perceived important historical, national and security interests that they feel are not being taken seriously by the West.

Russia, although geographically EuroAsian, but traditionally European, has culturally and politically been engaged with Europe, both in war and in peace. That relationship however, has been mostly at odds and adversarial in its history with the Western powers.

Its most recent security concern has been NATO’s expansion close to the Russian border and its loss of influence with countries that have traditionally been within the Russian orbit.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union has left Russia increasingly isolated and insecure as the European Union and the United States both economically and militarily continue to embrace many of the former Soviet republics.

As these now free and democratic former Soviet republics draw closer to the West, Russia is left feeling economically inferior and militarily vulnerable. These may be the motivating factors for Russia’s increased belligerence along Ukraine’s eastern border.

As powerful as the Communist Chinese Party is, dictatorships have a built-in paranoia about their own internal security and ability to govern. It is this fear and insecurity that drive them to make policy decisions that compel ever more oppressive behavior against their own people.

This is what led to premature abandonment of autonomous government in Hong Kong and the mainland government’s obsession with bringing Taiwan under communist rule. Without Taiwan the communist revolution is incomplete and conveys a continuous fear that the communist revolution is reversible.

This is the great test for the Biden administration. Can relentless diplomacy bring about a peaceful outcome in these two diplomatic challenges without resorting to military conflict.

The outcome of these two crises could negatively impact Israel’s position in the Arab/Israeli conflict if the U.S. strategy of engaging in relentless diplomacy fails in these two areas of conflict, thereby weakening U.S. world leadership.

If you wish to comment or respond you can reach me at melpearlman322@gmail.com. Please do so in a rational, thoughtful, respectful and civil manner.

Mel Pearlman holds B.S. & M.S. degrees in physics as well as a J.D. degree and initially came to Florida in 1966 to work on the Gemini and Apollo space programs. He has practiced law in Central Florida since 1972. He has served as president of the Jewish Federation of Greater Orlando; was a charter board member, first vice president and pro-bono legal counsel of the Holocaust Memorial Resource and Education Center of Central Florida, as well as holding many other community leadership positions.