What the polls say about Americans' support for Israel, Biden and the war in Gaza

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Younger voters are less likely to back Israel, support among Democrats for Israel’s conduct has declined and Americans overall are wary of being drawn into a Middle East war.

Those are three takeaways from a series of polls on Israel, the Palestinians and the war in Gaza that have been published in the more than three weeks since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. In that attack, Hamas terrorists killed 1,400, wounded thousands, took more than 200 captives and sparked a war in which Israel’s stated goal is to depose the terror group, which controls the Gaza Strip.

More than 8,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli strikes, and Israeli casualties are mounting as its military deepens a ground invasion of Gaza.

The stark age divide was demonstrated by a poll published Thursday by Quinnipiac. Respondents were asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack?” Half approved and 35 percent disapproved overall. But only 32 percent of respondents aged 18-34 approved of Israel’s response, as opposed to about 58 percent of those aged 50 and older.

Respondents also were worried about antisemitism, with reports showing that it has spiked in recent years and increased even more dramatically since Oct. 7. Asked “How serious a problem do you think that prejudice against Jewish people is today,” 38 percent said it was very serious and 37 percent said it was somewhat serious.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted on Oct. 26, reaching 1,610 voters by phone, and had a margin of error of 2.4 percent.

Polls taken closer to the Hamas invasion found greater support overall for Israel, but that backing still diminished rapidly as respondents dropped in age.

An Oct. 8-10 poll by the Economist/YouGov asked “In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, are your sympathies more with…” and found a 42 percent -9 percent divide overall in favor of Israel. “About equal,” a possible response in that poll, got 22 percent. But for those aged 18-29, 25 percent sympathized more with Israel, 19 percent with the Palestinians, and 25 percent “about equal.” For those 65 and above, 62 percent favored Israel, 3 percent favored the Palestinians and 18 percent responded “about equal.” That poll reached 1,500 adults online and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The Economist/YouGov poll and a Fox poll taken from Oct. 7-9 also show greater support among Democratic voters for Israel at the outset of the war, which dropped precipitously by the time Quinnipiac asked its questions late last week.

The Fox poll, which had a margin of error of 3.5 percent, showed Democrats siding with Israel over the Palestinians 59 percent to 25 percent, while Republicans sided with Israel 79 percent to 11 percent. The YouGov poll showed 26 percent of Democrats sympathizing with Israel, 15 percent sympathizing with the Palestinians and 26 percent saying they sympathized equally with both. (For Republicans in the YouGov poll, the numbers are 64 percent sympathizing with Israel, 3 percent sympathizing with the Palestinians, and 13 percent sympathizing equally with both.)

Three weeks later, Quinnipiac, asking whether respondents approve or disapprove of Israel’s response, found that 49 percent of Democrats disapprove while 33 percent approve. Three-quarters of Republicans approve, while 14 percent disapprove.

While President Joe Biden’s administration has provided weaponry and diplomatic support to Israel, both he and his Israeli counterparts have said that Israeli troops alone will fight the war. The Quinnipiac poll suggests Americans may not trust that assurance. Asked “How concerned are you that the United States will be drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East,” 43 percent of respondents said they were very concerned and 41 percent said they were somewhat concerned — a total of 84 percent.

Other polls provide a mixed picture of how Americans feel about Biden’s vocal support for Israel. A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll of 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 23 and 24 found that 52 percent approved of Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.

But a poll from Oct. 18 and 19 from the left-leaning Data for Progress found that 66 percent of all respondents, and majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents, agreed with the statement, “The U.S. should call for a ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza. The U.S. should leverage its close diplomatic relationship with Israel to prevent further violence and civilian deaths.”

That poll surveyed 1,329 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 percent. Both Biden and Israel have rejected calls for a ceasefire, which would leave Hamas in power.