US believes Tehran may be reconsidering major retaliation

(JNS) — Intensive American diplomacy and an increased military posture in the Middle East may have prompted Tehran to reconsider a major retaliatory strike against Israel, according to The Washington Post.

White House officials told the newspaper’s David Ignatius on Tuesday that they believe that President Joe Biden’s efforts to stave off a wider war are paying off, at least with regard to Tehran. However, Iran’s Lebanese terror proxy Hezbollah “is still a wild card,” the officials said.

Iran blames Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, and has threatened harsh retaliation. Haniyeh’s assassination came just hours after Israel eliminated senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hezbollah, too, has threatened a significant retaliation.

The Biden administration has been making an urgent diplomatic push to deescalate the situation, led by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“No one should escalate this conflict,” Blinken told reporters Tuesday, as quoted by the Post. “We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran. We communicated that message directly to Israel.”

The Pentagon has also sent warships and fighter jets to the region as a show of force.

“Iran understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official told Ignatius.

Washington ‘outraged’ by Haniyeh hit 

White House officials responded with “surprise and outrage” to the elimination of Haniyeh because they viewed it as a setback in reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, according to Tuesday’s report in the Post.

While Jerusalem has not publicly commented on the targeted killing, it informed Washington immediately afterward that it was responsible, according to the article, which cited three U.S. officials. 

The United States has been working with Israel and other parties on an agreement to halt fighting in Gaza, which is entering its tenth month, and free the remaining hostages held by Hamas. 

According to the Post, “Israel has repeatedly launched strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian commanders without first informing the United States, enraging Biden officials and the president himself.”

While the U.S. officials cited by the Post believe diplomatic efforts are bearing fruit, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Al Arabiya, citing U.S. intelligence sources, reported on Tuesday that Iran might be delaying a strike until after Wednesday’s gathering of Islamic countries‘ foreign ministers in Jeddah.

The meeting was called by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation at the behest of Tehran, according to the Islamic Republic’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. Its purpose is “to discuss the continued crimes of the Israeli occupation against the Palestinian people.”

The OIC represents 57 states and presents itself as “the voice of the Muslim world.”

According to the Al Arabiya report, the Americans also estimate that they will be able to help Israel “defend itself well” against an Iranian attack, but are expressing concern that a massive attack by Hezbollah from Lebanon could overwhelm Israel’s air defense systems.

Also on Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had over the weekend observed movements in Iran possibly signaling preparations for an attack. According to the U.S. officials cited in the report, these included the movement of missile launchers and various “military exercises.”

White House: Ceasefire talks have ‘reached a final stage’

According to a White House readout released on Tuesday, Biden thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi during a telephone conversation “for his determined leadership in the facilitation of negotiations [toward an Israel-Hamas ceasefire] that have now reached a final stage.”

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre refused to elaborate on Biden’s remarks during a press briefing later in the day.

“I’m not going to go beyond what the president stated. We have been very clear that it is important that the—the ceasefire deal, the hostage deal gets done. It has been a priority for this president for some time now,” she said.

“You’ve heard from the president directly. He wants to get this done. He wants the war to end. He wants hostages to come home and to go home to their loved ones and families,” she added. “And so, we believe … the end of this war would significantly lower tensions in the region. And so, we have been, certainly, laser focused on getting that done.”