Will Jews influence the election?

(JNS) — For decades, Jewish Republicans have talked about a realignment whereby Jews will abandon their traditional, almost reflexive support for the Democratic Party and embrace the Republican Party. Historically, Jewish voters have leaned heavily Democratic due to the party’s association with liberal values, which resonate with most Jews who identify as liberal or progressive. Policy Jews say that Israel is not the most critical issue, but they are influenced if one candidate is perceived as hostile—as was the case, for example, with Jimmy Carter. He would have never become president if one in nine New York Jews had voted for Gerald Ford.

Will the Jewish vote make any difference in the outcome in 2024?

Jews make up a little more than 2 percent of the population but vote in disproportionate numbers. In a close election, every vote counts; so Jewish votes matter, but the same is true of every other constituency. A change of a few percentage points towards one candidate or another among black or Hispanic voters is much more meaningful than the same shift among Jews.

Let’s play a hypothetical game to see how the presidential election might play out.

First, what do we know about Jewish voters? The American Jewish Committee has been conducting surveys for years and has the most reliable data. They have found that about 48 percent of Jews identify as liberals, 59% as progressives, about one-third as moderates and 20 percent as conservatives. Nearly half are Reform or Conservative, 29 percent are secular, and only 8 percent are Orthodox. We don’t know a lot about Jews of color; some may assume they lean liberal, but that may not be the case for different constituencies.

In 2020, the Jewish vote favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 68 percent to 30 percent. That was the lowest total for a Democrat since Michael Dukakis received 64 percent in 1988 to George H.W. Bush’s 35 percent. Bush did better than the average Republican (26 percent) because Jews thought that he would continue the pro-Israel policies of Ronald Reagan. He didn’t and was punished when he ran for re-election and received only 11 percent of the Jewish vote to Bill Clinton’s 80 percent.

If Jewish voters apply similar logic and assume that Kamala Harris will continue Biden’s policies—and her campaign remarks reflect them—it would not be surprising if she fared as bad or worse than the president did in 2020. According to a Pew survey, that appears to be the case, as only 65 percent of Jews said they would support Harris. That is the same share of the Jewish vote that George McGovern got when Reagan routed him. The 34 percent that favored Trump is consistent with a Fox News poll that found 33 percent of Jews voted Republican in the midterms.

The Jewish Democratic Council of America has the race at 72 percent to 25 percent in a two-way race, but Harris drops to 68 percent in a five-way vote. The only Democrat to win with fewer Jewish votes than the lower figure was Woodrow Wilson in 1916. You should be skeptical of any statistics from Republican or Democratic sources, but even the higher figure would not guarantee that Harris could win, as John Kerry and Al Gore both lost with 76 percent and 79 percent of the Jewish vote, respectively.

2020 Jewish Vote by Swing State

The state everyone is talking about: Pennsylvania

We know that the Jews most likely to vote Republican are Orthodox. If they made up the bulk of Trump voters, they would likely have no impact on the race because most do not live in any of the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A significant percentage, if not most, Orthodox Jews live in New York, Florida, California, New Jersey and Maryland. Trump is expected to win Florida but will lose the rest, which are solidly Democratic, so polls showing the Jewish vote  shifting towards Trump in places like New York are meaningless for the presidential race.

On the other hand, since the Orthodox comprise a tiny fraction of the Jewish community, Trump must be attracting moderates and liberals if he is winning one-third of the vote.

Trump will benefit from the increase in the Jewish population in all but one state. He picks up from 1,024 votes in Wisconsin to 13,177 in Pennsylvania. He won North Carolina in 2020 and would pick up 2,048 more Jewish votes. Given the relatively large margins of victory compared to the slight increase in Trump’s vote share, Jews are unlikely to have as much impact in Michigan, Nevada or Wisconsin. Trump would, however, reduce the margin he lost in Arizona and Georgia to less than 6,000 votes. In Pennsylvania his deficit would be less than 68,000.

The Republican Jewish Coalition, which reportedly allocated up to $15 million for Jewish voter outreach in the swing states, claims the vote there is 50-50. Again, take this with a grain of salt, but if that is true, based on the 2020 results, Trump would have enough votes to win Arizona and Georgia, which would likely give him the presidency. The margin he would have to make up in Wisconsin would be less than 17,000. He would need less than 28,000 additional votes to win Pennsylvania.

This is all speculative but gives a sense of the impact the Jewish vote could have on Trump’s chances to return to the White House. Change the assumptions, and the outcome will be different. The Jewish vote won’t be the same in every state. Other factors, such as age, gender and income can make a difference in how Jews vote.

Harris’s campaign has only gotten started, so she has time to win more Jewish votes, but she is limited in what she can do because Biden’s policy towards Israel will continue to influence Jews’ decisions, as will their concerns about the far-left in the Democratic Party that has become increasingly anti-Israel and sometimes antisemitic. Harris is also scared that reassuring Jews will alienate progressives and the people who voted uncommitted in the Democratic primary to show their dissatisfaction with Biden’s support of Israel. She is particularly worried about losing Michigan because of the Arab Americans concentrated there who are angry with Biden.

Trump’s projected share of the Jewish vote is well above the average for Republicans since 1968. He isn’t likely to pick up too many additional Jewish votes unless Harris makes a serious misstep or Biden becomes more critical of Israel. Trump could lose votes if he continues to associate with conspiracy theorists and antisemites like Laura Loomer.

The Jewish vote could have more influence on local races. Jewish Insider’s Josh Kraushaar noted, for example, that the sizeable Maryland Jewish community could influence the outcome of the Senate race between former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. A Hogan victory might help Republicans take control of the Senate. Jewish constituencies could also affect close House races. They already have in defeating Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who was one of the most anti-Israel Democrats.

Trump’s presidency was marked by strong pro-Israel stances, a factor that endeared him to a segment of the Jewish electorate. Conversely, Harris, as vice president under Biden, will be judged largely based on the Biden administration’s policies, which many Jews have criticized. If Harris is perceived as perpetuating Biden’s approach, it could translate into the significant decline in Jewish support shown in the Pew survey.

Democrats have long taken the Jewish vote for granted and Republicans have written it off, but in this nail-biter of an election, it behooves both Harris and Trump to fight for every one of them.