Myths and facts about Trump's Middle East policy

For single-issue voters for whom Israel is the most paramount, the choice in November hinges on which candidate is truly best for the Jewish state. Voters leaning toward Donald Trump tout him as the most pro-Israel president in history. Without trying to compare his policies to, say, Harry Truman, who made the Partition Plan happen, or Lyndon Johnson, who established the U.S. as Israel’s principal arms supplier and guarantor of its qualitative edge, or Ronald Reagan, who institutionalized U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation, let’s examine Trump’s record.

These are Trump’s pro-Israel actions and consequences.

Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. embassy there, and closing the consulate that acted as an embassy to the Palestinian Authority: Israel was not clamoring for this long overdue step but was grateful (New York Times correspondent Maggie Haberman claimed that Trump accepted a $20 million Super PAC contribution from the billionaire Sheldon Adelson to move the embassy). Intentional or not, it offered the opportunity to solidify Jerusalem’s status as Israel’s capital and encourage other nations to follow suit. The decision might have been a game changer by taking Jerusalem off the negotiating table had it garnered international support. Instead, most of the world denounced the U.S. action, and only five nations moved their embassies. The State Department undercut the policy by finding ways to continue supporting the Palestinians.

Acknowledging Israeli Sovereignty Over the Golan Heights: This was largely symbolic, as most of the world was accustomed to Israel’s annexation. The Syrian civil war ended the discussion of a peace agreement requiring Israel’s withdrawal.

Cutting aid to UNRWA and the Palestinians: Americans were more enthused than Israel. Before Oct. 7, Israel saw UNRWA as the only conduit for providing essential services to Gazans. Despite pending Knesset legislation to label UNRWA a terrorist organization, it is likely to remain a necessary evil. Similarly, while the pro-Israel community cheered Trump for ending U.S. taxpayer subsidies for Palestinian terror, Israel believes aid to the Palestinian Authority is needed to avert its collapse and a security threat from the ensuing chaos.

Leaving the Human Rights Council and Defending Israel at the UN: The former was a symbolic and ultimately futile gesture given the HRC’s irredeemable bias. Trump’s UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, vigorously supported Israel, though she could not impact the equally unmovable General Assembly. The US veto in the Security Council, which Trump used twice, is the only impediment to the imposition of sanctions and perhaps more draconian measures from being adopted.

Accepting Israeli Settlements: Trump abandoned the mantra that Israeli settlements are an obstacle to peace and explicitly acknowledged they were not illegal. Nevertheless, Jared Kushner suggested that Israel freeze the construction of settlements “for a couple of years.” Israel did not, but the number of settlers only increased 14 percent during Trump’s tenure compared to 36 percent under George W. Bush. Furthermore, despite the support of Trump’s ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to give up applying Israeli sovereignty to the settlements is a condition for achieving the Abraham Accords.

Not pressuring Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians: Trump did not make the kind of moral equivalence between terrorists and counterterrorism that Vice President Kamala Harris made in her acceptance speech. Unlike Barack Obama, Trump did not pressure Israel to sacrifice its security for a deal with the Palestinians. Unlike Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (arguably the least and most pro-Israel presidents), who held intensive peace talks at Camp David, Trump never convened a summit to negotiate peace. Instead, he unilaterally proposed the first U.S. peace plan to realistically recognize that Israel would not dismantle all its settlements. Israel conditionally accepted the plan, but the Palestinians rejected it. What Trump supporters ignore is that the plan included a detailed blueprint for the creation of a Palestinian state, an anathema to MAGA Jews.

Signing the Abraham Accords: This was a game changer even without the Saudis, who Trump failed to bring into the agreement. The Accords shattered the taboo – and Arabist myth – over the Gulf states making peace with Israel before the establishment of a Palestinian state. The ties survived the Gaza war and created a critical alliance against Iran. Saudi Arabia refused to join the Accords, but it had to approve of Bahrain and the UAE signing on and is now inching toward normalization with Israel. The Accords resulted from Jared Kushner’s diplomacy, not Trump’s, and Kushner is not likely to play a role in another Trump administration. Still, Trump is likely to be willing to meet Saudi demands for nuclear technology, a defense umbrella, and more military aid to win its agreement for establishing relations with Israel.

Pulling Out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign: These were among Trump’s most popular decisions with more hawkish Jewish supporters. The Obama deal was a loophole-filled disaster, but Trump’s policy failed because our allies wouldn’t cooperate. Iran circumvented sanctions by reaching an oil supply deal with China. Iran’s revenues did decline until Biden took over and refused to enforce the sanctions. Trump deserves credit for assassinating Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani. However, he claims Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was against the killing despite Israel providing the intelligence proving Soleimani was responsible for murdering Americans.

Acknowledging the threat of Radical Islam: In stark contrast to Barack Obama, who banned the words, Trump acknowledged the threat of radical Islam. Critics thought his Muslim ban was an extreme response, but he was the first president to unapologetically denounce Islamists without fear of being labeled an Islamophobe.

Opposing BDS and Adopting the IHRA Definition of Antisemitism: The administration opposed the BDS campaign, adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism, and considered “anti-Zionism anti-Semitism.”

Moving Israel to CENTCOM: This was another long-overdue move that the Abraham Accords facilitated. Joint exercises and interoperability with US forces are vital to strengthening Israel’s security. The value has been demonstrated since Oct. 7, when US forces from CENTCOM defended Israel against Houthi and Iranian missiles.

These policies were not based on a strategic vision like Nixon, a biblical connection like Truman, his kishkes like Reagan, or a lifelong empathy like Biden. They were based more on the political calculus that he needed the votes of millions of pro-Israel evangelical Christians. He praised them for their support while disparaging Jews for being ungrateful and accused them of hatred and disloyalty toward Israel and insanity for supporting Democrats.

Jewish critics point to decisions during Trump’s presidency that posed risks to Israel:

Emboldening Islamists: He emboldened Islamists by negotiating a peace deal with the Taliban (which Biden exacerbated by the subsequent calamitous withdrawal).

Revealing Sensitive Information: Trump disclosed classified information about Israeli operations in Syria during a meeting with Russian officials that forced them to end. He also allowed the release of high-resolution satellite imagery of Israel’s nuclear facility at Dimona.

Failing to Respond to Iranian Aggression: Trump’s tough talk on Iran proved hollow as he failed to deliver on threats of reprisals after Iran-backed forces launched ballistic missile attacks on American bases (he now falsely claims US soldiers only suffered headaches). Despite his rhetoric, Trump was unwilling to take military action to dismantle Iran’s nuclear facilities, allowing Iran to edge dangerously closer to a nuclear bomb during his tenure. Trump did not deter Iran from sponsoring terrorism, supporting violent proxies, and destabilizing the region. His inaction emboldened Iran, leaving Israel more vulnerable than when he took office. Far from strengthening US or Israeli security, his lack of follow-through on critical threats allowed Iran to continue its march toward nuclear capability and regional dominance.

Impeding Israel-China Relations: Like other presidents, Trump pressured Israel to cancel agreements with China, which Israel believed were in its interests.

Confusing Enemies and Allies: Trump was enamored with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. He expressed greater confidence in the Russian president than US intelligence agencies, and he sent “love letters” to the North Korean dictator. Both countries are allied with Israel’s enemy – Iran.

Trump has offered few specifics about his Middle East policy for a second term. He has made fatuous remarks about how October 7 would not have happened if he were president.

Netanyahu enjoyed a far stronger relationship with President Trump than with President Biden. However, Trump, notorious for holding grudges, lashed out at Netanyahu for congratulating Biden on his election victory. Netanyahu, Trump said, was “the man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with. … Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake. F**k him.”

When he addressed Congress in the United States this summer, Netanyahu made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to make amends. Still, if Trump is reelected, he may not show the same warmth towards the prime minister as in his first term.

If Trump were to win, he would not have to worry about reelection and would not be beholden to evangelicals or anyone else. Hence, pro-Israel voters might want to pay attention to Trump’s former National Security Council Advisor John Bolton, who told the New York Times, “Trump’s support for Israel in the first term is not guaranteed in the second term, because Trump’s positions are made on the basis of what’s good for Donald Trump, not on some coherent theory of national security.”