Will Biden act against Israel during the lame-duck period?

(JNS) — The final two months of the Biden administration may see diplomatic actions taken against Israel, although the White House has neither confirmed nor denied assessments on the issue.

One scenario could see the administration consider approving a United Nations Security Council resolution that would target Israel’s presence in Judea and Samaria, reminiscent of Resolution 2334 passed in 2016 during the Obama administration’s transition period.

A report by Israel Hayom on Tuesday cited an American source close to the Biden administration as stating that the United States intends to endorse such a resolution, adding that the proposed resolution aims to assert that Israel’s presence in Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem, including the Old City, violates international law.

The source emphasized the parallels to Resolution 2334, which the Security Council approved during the transition period between the Obama and Trump administrations in December 2016. “Many of Obama’s advisers back then are also serving in Biden’s outgoing administration,” the report said, citing the source as stating, “I know that such a decision is brewing in the [U.S.] National Security Council.”

In response to inquiries, a senior Israeli official said Jerusalem currently has “no information” about an American intention to pass a resolution against Israel at the U.N., according to the report, which added, however, that “according to the assessment, eventually, such a decision will likely come.” 

Adding to the concerns, Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, discussed possible scenarios on Tuesday. Gilboa recalled the unusual step taken by President Barack Obama when he allowed the passage of Resolution 2334.

“Obama broke the tradition where an outgoing president doesn’t initiate significant new policies during the transition,” Gilboa told JNS. “He knew Trump’s position on settlements but still submitted the proposal to the Security Council.”

Gilboa added that “if Biden goes through with this, it’s essentially a repeat of Obama’s move. It might be aimed at negating [former Secretary of State] Mike Pompeo’s declaration in November 2019, which nullified Obama’s policy on settlements.”

The professor highlighted possible motivations behind such a move, it could be an attempt by Biden to leave a legacy opposing Trump’s stance on Judea and Samaria.

Gilboa questioned the rationale behind introducing a resolution now, adding, “If they do this, they’ll face severe criticism from Trump and the Republican-led Congress. It would be an unusual step during a transition period.”

Gilboa added that “this administration has previously imposed personal sanctions on individuals, including hilltop youths. They even considered sanctioning [Israeli Ministers Betzalel] Smotrich and [Itamar] Ben-Gvir. As such, I would not be surprised if they are considering such a step. If it goes ahead, it would appear to be some sort of punishment.”

Looking ahead, Gilboa suggested that Israel needs to engage in proactive diplomacy. “Israel should argue that such moves will only hinder any potential peace arrangements, like the Abraham Accords. It’s like putting a stoke in the wheel. If Biden proceeds with this, it will backfire.”

In such a scenario, he added, Israel would likely turn to the incoming Trump administration, which would issue an opposite declaration, similar to the declaration made by Pompeo in November 2019, who stated at the time a change in Washington’s policy on settlements. “Calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law hasn’t worked. It hasn’t advanced the cause of peace,” Pompeo said.

Certain arms transfers

Meanwhile, indications continue to surface of ongoing punitive measures that have been underway in the form of withholding or delaying weapons deliveries. The Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America released an update on Tuesday concerning U.S. military assistance to Israel since Oct. 7, 2023. It notes that “eight platforms have either been slowed, suspended or left unanswered.

“Recent U.S. decisions to withhold certain arms transfers to Israel, resume others, and the inconsistent reporting around those decisions highlight the challenges of accounting for vital resupplies to help Israel wage an unexpected, prolonged, multifront, munitions-intensive conflict,” JINSA reported.

JINSA has produced an infographic detailing U.S. military assistance to Israel since Oct. 7, including withheld supplies. “The information presented is based on public reporting and JINSA discussions with officials knowledgeable of the arms transfers. Because arms deliveries are not publicly disclosed, it is difficult to assess exactly which supplies the United States agreed to send since October 7, versus sales that were contracted before that date and delivered afterward—nor is this list likely to be exhaustive, given backlogged and incomplete reporting of agreed arms transfers by the Pentagon,” it stated.

Under the “transfer reportedly slowed” category, the infographic mentioned Hellfire missiles and precision guided munitions, D9 armored bulldozers and tank ammunition.

At the same time, the U.S. has provided at least $17.9 billion in support of Israeli military operations against Hamas since the Oct. 7, 2023, mass murder attacks, according to research released last month by Brown University. This includes deliveries of artillery shells, air defense munitions, precision-guided munitions and heavy bombs.

On Nov. 17, Marc Dubowitz, chief executive of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Eugene Kontorovich, a professor of law at George Mason University in Virginia, stated in a joint op-ed in the New York Post, “Under pressure from Israel-bashing critics, including scores of congressional Democrats, a president who stood firmly behind Israel after the Oct. 7 massacre seems to have lost his moral compass. And just as President Barack Obama in his last months in office allowed the UN Security Council to pass a resolution slamming Israel, Biden may use sanctions to further turn the screws on the Jewish state in his lame-duck stretch.”

They highlighted that in 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department “determined that the Foundation for Global Political Exchange, a U.S.-based nonprofit, would violate sanctions laws by inviting Hamas and Hezbollah to a conference it was planning in Beirut. Last week, however, the Biden administration did an about-face and gave the group a green light for the meeting.”

Dubowitz and Kontorovich added, “Yet at the same time, the Biden administration has created the first sanctions program” designed to target citizens of Israel.

In the broader context, the reported actions reflect internal pressures within the Democratic Party and the Biden administration’s attempts to navigate between progressive elements and traditional foreign policy stances. Gilboa observed, “Perhaps this is Biden’s way of appeasing the progressive wing after facing criticism for his support of Israel during the recent conflict.”